潘石屹：楼市非周期，是换代！未来财富新规则是什么？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a transformation rather than following a cyclical pattern, indicating a fundamental change in the underlying logic of the industry [1] Demand Transformation - The demand for housing has shifted from basic needs to quality improvements, with a notable increase in the sales of larger, well-equipped homes [3] - In September 2025, new residential prices in Shanghai's core areas rose by 5.6% year-on-year, with larger units (120-144 square meters) becoming increasingly popular [3] - The proportion of sales for 120-144 square meter units in 30 cities surpassed 30%, while sales of units under 60 square meters fell below 10% [3] - The demand for "delivery certainty" has increased, with the proportion of existing homes sold rising to 35.6%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] Regional Transformation - There is a clear regional differentiation in the real estate market, with core cities experiencing price stability while third and fourth-tier cities face declines [4] - In September 2025, new residential prices in first-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of only 0.7%, while third-tier cities experienced a 3.4% drop [4] - The land market reflects this trend, with first-tier cities' residential land sales increasing by 47% year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities see a decrease in land sales [4] Supply Transformation - The introduction of a dual-track system of "affordable housing + commercial housing" is reshaping the supply model [5] - Approximately 60% of families are expected to benefit from affordable housing solutions, reducing reliance on commercial housing [5] - The government is allocating over 10 billion yuan to support urban renewal projects, enhancing living conditions and increasing housing options for residents [5] New Wealth Rules - The investment strategy in real estate is shifting from a speculative approach to a focus on quality cities and properties [6][7] - Caution is advised regarding leveraging for property purchases, with a preference for low-cost loans [7] - Concentrating investments in core assets is recommended, as these properties tend to retain value better [7] - Urban renewal initiatives are seen as potential opportunities for value appreciation in older properties [7][8]