“深海”的万亿机遇

Core Insights - The deep-sea economy is emerging as a trillion-dollar investment theme driven by short-term focus on FPSO oil and gas equipment and long-term interest in deep-sea mining equipment [1][2] Group 1: Market Potential - The deep-sea economy is projected to have a resource value of up to $177 trillion, including $81 trillion in metals and $95 trillion in oil and gas resources [4] - The capital expenditure (Capex) for offshore oil and gas exploration is expected to reach approximately $2.5 trillion over the next decade, while spending on deep-sea mining equipment is forecasted to surge from $150 billion to $1.5 trillion between 2036 and 2050 [4][9] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The deep-sea sector is driven by two main pillars: mature offshore oil and gas extraction, which is experiencing a new capital expenditure cycle due to energy security and land resource depletion, and emerging deep-sea metal extraction, which is becoming commercially viable due to technological breakthroughs [4][5] - The deep-sea holds significantly higher reserves and grades of key metals compared to land, with estimates suggesting that by 2065, 35-45% of key metal demand will be sourced from the deep sea [5][10] Group 3: Investment Focus - Short-term investment should concentrate on the FPSO supply chain, which is expected to capture a market size of $300 billion over the next decade, benefiting operators, engineering contractors, and suppliers of hull construction and core modules [11][12] - Long-term investment should target deep-sea mining equipment, with a projected Capex of $1.5 trillion post-cost parity, primarily focused on underwater vehicles and systems [9][10] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal point for deep-sea development, with significant policy advancements in China and the U.S. aimed at accelerating deep-sea mining approvals [5][10] Group 5: Key Beneficiaries - Companies capable of manufacturing underwater vehicles, lifting systems, and sensors are positioned to be the biggest winners in the deep-sea mining sector, alongside suppliers of high-performance materials [14]