高盛调研三花等“中国机器人供应链”：产能规划已达每年10万至100万台

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs released a report on the supply chain of humanoid robots in China, indicating that core suppliers are in a "head start" phase for mass production expected to begin in the second half of 2026, despite not having secured large-scale orders yet [1][6] Group 1: Investment Timing and Confidence - The report identifies the second half of 2026 as a significant investment timeline for mass production, serving as an important anchor for investors [2] - Suppliers are investing heavily in land, factories, and production line planning, demonstrating strong confidence in demand from end customers, particularly major players like Tesla [2] - The strategy of "capacity first" reflects a strong belief in future demand but also carries the risk of underwhelming orders leading to idle capacity [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Suppliers are actively planning production capacity both domestically and overseas, with annual production capacity projections ranging from 100,000 to 1 million robot-equivalent units, indicating an overly optimistic outlook compared to Goldman Sachs' forecast of 1.38 million units by 2035 [3] - No company has confirmed large-scale orders or a clear production timeline, with a common strategy of gradually ramping up production based on actual orders [3] Group 3: Evolution of Supply Chain Offerings - The supply chain is evolving from providing individual components to offering integrated modules, expanding product offerings to include sensors and structural parts [4] - Companies are seeking to leverage their existing capabilities in precision manufacturing and automation to enter the robot components market, aiming for new growth opportunities [4] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Companies emphasize rapid design-to-product turnaround and agile service as core competitive advantages to capture and expand market share within the supply chain [5] - Major clients such as Tesla, Zhiyuan, Leju, and Xiaopeng are expected to rely on external suppliers for the mass production of robots, with a common expectation for production to start in the second half of 2026 [5]