律师：解读预测市场 Polymarket 推广中的法律风险

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an in-depth analysis of Polymarket, a prediction market platform, highlighting its differences from traditional casinos and the legal risks associated with promoting it in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Differences Between Polymarket and Traditional Casinos - Polymarket operates on a decentralized blockchain network (Polygon), unlike traditional casinos that rely on centralized servers and house control [2]. - The mechanism of Polymarket is based on real-world event outcomes executed by smart contracts, whereas traditional casinos manipulate games through human-operated tools, maintaining a centralized management model [2]. - Polymarket serves a social function by aggregating market expectations and reflecting public predictive information, which can aid academic and media research, while traditional casinos primarily focus on entertainment without positive societal contributions [2]. Group 2: Legal Risks of Promoting Polymarket - Promoting Polymarket carries significant legal risks, as it may be classified as gambling under Chinese law, which could lead to severe legal consequences for promoters [3][8]. - The 2010 guidelines from Chinese authorities indicate that acting as an agent for gambling websites and organizing gambling activities online could constitute the crime of operating a casino [8].