wsdl(SH:600995) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-09 10:28Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the upcoming electricity market reforms starting in 2026, which will allow electricity prices to more accurately reflect supply and demand dynamics, potentially increasing the profitability of adjustable resources like pumped storage and new energy storage [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The introduction of a two-part electricity pricing mechanism under document "633" will impact the profitability of pumped storage, with the net present value (NPV) of projects closely tied to capacity prices [2] - For projects with a unit cost of 6.5 yuan/watt, if the capacity price is below 500 yuan/kilowatt-hour, the project's DCF value is negative; at 550 yuan/kilowatt-hour, the NPV ranges from 1.2 to 1.8 yuan/watt, translating to a value of 15-22 billion yuan for a typical 1.2 million kilowatt project [2] Group 2: Capacity and Growth Projections - The company has 10.8 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity under construction, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% for the period 2025-2029 [3] - The company has significant potential for additional pumped storage projects, with at least 25.8 million kilowatts still in the early stages of development [3] Group 3: Valuation and Profitability - The company's total valuation for all hydropower stations is estimated between 38 billion to 64.5 billion yuan, with specific valuations of 18-20 billion yuan for existing pumped storage and 13.6-38 billion yuan for projects under construction [4] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards by 10%, 11%, and 13% respectively, reflecting a recovery in the utilization hours of peak-shaving hydropower [5]