坚朗五金(002791)：收入下降收敛 净利率有所回升

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, down 50% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, a decline of 9% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 68% to 50 million yuan, and the non-recurring net profit rose by 127% to 40 million yuan [1] Revenue Trends - Revenue decline has been moderating, with Q3 showing a smaller decrease compared to previous quarters, attributed to a lower revenue base and significant growth in overseas income [2] - The real estate completion area in 2025 has decreased by 15% year-on-year, impacting demand for construction materials [2] - The company has established nearly 20 overseas warehouses to replicate its domestic sales model, enhancing its international presence [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first three quarters was approximately 30.3%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was about 30.1%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s expense ratio decreased, with a period expense ratio of approximately 26.7% for the first three quarters, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and 24.7% in Q3, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was approximately 0.4%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 net profit margin improved to 3.0%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Investment Strategy and Market Position - The company is transitioning from an expansion phase to an optimization phase, focusing on prudent investment choices to mitigate risks associated with long-term equity investments [4] - The demand for construction hardware remains under pressure, but the company is actively optimizing internal efficiencies and enhancing its service capabilities [4] - The company’s official website has been upgraded to provide comprehensive services, which is a contributing factor to the reduction in expense ratios during the downturn [4] Future Outlook - The company projects a net profit of approximately 70 million yuan and 250 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 113 and 32 times [5]