A股分析师前瞻：年末为什么会出现仓位与风格的再平衡？

Group 1 - The focus of brokerage strategy analysts this week is on year-end style rebalancing, with historical patterns indicating that sectors with high deviation in holdings during the third quarter, such as new energy, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage, tend to show weaker performance around November [1][3] - The fourth quarter is expected to face profit-taking pressure in main sectors, as previous main lines have accumulated significant gains, leading to high levels of capital crowding [1][3] - The structure of institutional holdings in the first three quarters of this year is evident, suggesting a high probability of position rebalancing before the spring market rally, which will create favorable conditions for better market performance [1][3] Group 2 - The strategy team from Guojin highlights the fragility of financial cycles among overseas tech giants, leading to a focus on high-certainty varieties, with A-shares also beginning a process of style rebalancing [2][4] - The transition of the tech industry's development from U.S.-led computing infrastructure to China's advantages in electricity, manufacturing, and general infrastructure represents a repricing of Chinese assets [2][4] - In the diffusion market, opportunities in specific sub-sectors within the electric equipment and chemical sectors are worth attention, including electrical instruments, titanium dioxide, organic silicon, and specialty plastics [2][4] Group 3 - The strategy team from Dongwu notes that the spring market rally is likely to experience a position rebalancing before its initiation, with a focus on sectors that have independent logic beyond AI narratives and are experiencing upward trends in ROE from long-term lows [1][3] - The analysis indicates that the small-cap style has a higher probability of rising compared to large-cap style in November, attributed to A-shares being in a performance and macro event "vacuum period," leading to active theme investments based on next year's performance expectations [1][3] Group 4 - The strategy team from Huaxi reviews the past decade, noting that November is favorable for "small-cap value + theme investment," with the market entering an active phase based on performance expectations and industry trends [1][3] - The current investment focus in A-shares may further concentrate on upstream industries and technology applications under the "anti-involution" strategy, with short-term attention on policies promoting consumption [1][3]