鑫元周观点 | 中美经贸关系阶段性缓和，出口增速回落内需仍待修复

Macro Overview - China's export value in October decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly down from the previous value of 8.3%, and below the expected 3.2% [3] - China's import value increased by 1.0% year-on-year, down from 7.4% previously, and also below the expected 4.1% [3] - The trade dynamics indicate a mixed scenario with external demand resilience and internal demand still needing recovery, influenced by high base effects and previous export rush [3] - A temporary consensus in China-US trade relations has emerged, including a one-year suspension of certain export controls and restoration of some import qualifications from the US, which may alleviate uncertainties in the supply chain [3][7] - The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port emphasizes "institutional openness" and is set to operate under controlled risks [3] Equity Market - The US government shutdown continues to impact market sentiment but has not yet directly affected the economy [4] - The US dollar index rebounded due to expectations of better economic performance compared to Europe and Japan, following the Fed's interest rate cuts [4] - October's export data from China weakened due to the new round of trade disputes with the US, indicating some unique circumstances [4] - The overall market sentiment remains neutral, with AI as a key sector but facing valuation pressures [5][44] Fixed Income Market - The bond market is influenced by the central bank's bond-buying activities and new fund rate regulations, with recent data showing a mixed trading environment [6] - The yields on 30-year, 10-year, and 1-year government bonds changed by 2 basis points, 1 basis point, and 2 basis points, respectively, closing at 2.16%, 1.81%, and 1.40% [6] - The bond market is expected to experience a mixed outlook, with weak financial data anticipated for October, providing a solid foundation for the market [6][45] Industry Dynamics - The trade value of China's goods in October reached 3.7 trillion yuan, with exports at 2.17 trillion yuan (down 0.8%) and imports at 1.53 trillion yuan (up 1.4%) [9] - The US remains China's third-largest trading partner, with trade value down 15.9% year-on-year [9] - The import of soybeans from the US reached a historical high of 9.48 million tons in October [9] - The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port aims to enhance trade and investment liberalization and facilitation [9] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish, with a focus on sectors like electric power equipment and coal for potential short-term gains [5][44] - The equity market's risk premium relative to fixed income is at 5.17%, indicating a favorable long-term holding environment [18] - The trading volume in the A-share market reflects a slight increase in leverage, with net buying concentrated in electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals [24]