国内牛肉价格稳健背后

Core Insights - The global beef market is experiencing significant inflationary pressures, with McDonald's executives highlighting unprecedented price increases affecting the fast-food industry [1][3] - In contrast, domestic beef prices in China have shown a slight decline, indicating a stable market environment despite global trends [1][3] Price Trends - Global beef prices are on the rise, with major producing countries like the US, Australia, and Brazil facing supply constraints due to extreme weather and export restrictions [3] - As of November 6, the average wholesale price of beef in China was 66.31 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous day and a cumulative decline of 4.8% from October's peak [3][4] - Retail prices for beef in China have remained stable, with certain cuts maintaining their prices compared to earlier in the year [3][4] Domestic Price Stability - The stability of domestic beef prices is supported by sufficient supply, with a reported increase in beef cattle slaughter numbers and daily arrivals in major producing regions [4][5] - The transition of culled dairy cows to beef production has contributed to market supply, with an estimated 15% of culled dairy cows entering the beef market this year [4][5] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beef market is characterized by a short-term supply surplus, with demand not keeping pace with supply growth due to dietary preferences and competition from other meats [5][6] - Profitability issues in the beef supply chain are evident, with rising live cattle prices for farmers but losses for slaughterhouses due to slow sales [5][6] Future Market Outlook - Experts predict that beef prices in China will remain stable in the short term, with potential moderate increases in the medium to long term due to rising consumer demand [7][8] - The decline in the number of breeding cows may lead to future supply shortages, impacting prices in the coming years [7][8] - The expected annual growth rate for domestic beef consumption is around 8%, while import quotas are unlikely to exceed a 6% increase, indicating a potential supply gap [8]