美联储新动作扩表究竟是救市良策还是隐患再生？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential bond-buying is aimed at technical management of bank reserves rather than a broad monetary easing strategy [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet, leading to tightening market liquidity, particularly since October, prompting institutions to frequently use repurchase agreements [3]. - The Federal Reserve's asset size has decreased by $2.2 trillion since June 2022, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to 21%, making it reasonable to halt the balance sheet reduction [5]. - The Federal Reserve's goal is to maintain smooth market operations by intervening before reserves reach critical levels, thereby reducing the likelihood of liquidity crises [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The bond-buying may not immediately lead to a rebound in yields but could prevent further declines, reflecting a cautious external environment [5]. - There is a risk that market participants may misinterpret the Federal Reserve's bond purchases as a signal of a new easing cycle, which could lead to premature capital flow changes [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve aims to avoid miscommunication similar to the European Central Bank's experience, where reinvestment actions were misinterpreted as easing, causing increased volatility [8]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The strategy of providing liquidity in advance reflects the Federal Reserve's emphasis on the resilience of the financial system, which is crucial for preventing economic downturns [16]. - However, prolonged high reserve levels may lead to market dependency on central bank liquidity, potentially undermining risk pricing capabilities [16]. - The Federal Reserve's bond-buying serves as a technical measure that highlights the importance of liquidity management in influencing market sentiment and expectations [16].