Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-09 21:22Core Viewpoint - China's export control on rare earths has become a significant tool in the ongoing US-China rivalry, marking a shift from passive to active defense strategies [1] Group 1: Export Control and Economic Warfare - The recent export control measures on rare earths are seen as a direct response to aggressive US policies, including the "50% ownership penetration" rule and exorbitant fees for Chinese ships entering US ports [1] - The "long-arm jurisdiction" policy not only restricts the export of raw materials but also applies to processed rare earth products that utilize Chinese technology, effectively controlling global supply chains [1] Group 2: Dependency on Chinese Supply Chains - The US estimates that it will take at least seven to eight years to completely eliminate dependence on Chinese rare earths, requiring hundreds of billions in federal investment annually [4] - Key industries such as lithium batteries, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are heavily reliant on Chinese materials, with over 70% of basic pharmaceutical raw materials sourced from China [7][8] Group 3: Challenges in Alternative Supply Chains - The US attempts to build alternative supply chains for rare earths face significant challenges, particularly in refining capabilities, where China holds a monopoly on advanced processing techniques [1][4] - The semiconductor industry is also at risk, with China capturing 31% of the market share in mature processes, and US manufacturers relying on Chinese firms for critical components [5] Group 4: Broader Implications of the US-China Rivalry - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the potential for resource management strategies extending beyond rare earths to include nickel, cobalt, and lithium [10] - The competition is not just about technology but also about systemic resilience, with China demonstrating a strong ability to adapt and innovate under pressure [15]