黄金还能不能买？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of short-term policy impacts and long-term macroeconomic conditions [1] Short-term Policy Impact - The new tax policy aims to direct investment demand towards standardized on-market transactions [1] - The procurement cost for non-investment gold (such as jewelry) has increased by approximately 7%, which may be passed on to consumers [1] - The cost of investment gold bars (purchased through exchange member units) remains largely unchanged, leading to expectations of rising jewelry prices while the impact on investment gold bars is limited [1] Macroeconomic and Policy Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is strengthening the dollar, which suppresses gold prices [1] - Uncertainty from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown is present, although there are still expectations for a Fed rate cut [1] - Short-term pressure is anticipated due to a strong dollar and high interest rates, while medium to long-term support is expected from rate cut expectations and fiscal risks [1] Market Supply and Demand Structure - Central bank gold purchases remain robust, with global central bank gold buying reaching 220 tons by Q3 2025 [1] - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF investment demand in Q3 [1] - Jewelry consumption may be suppressed due to rising prices, providing solid bottom support but limited short-term price-driving momentum [1] Investment Strategies for Gold - The core of the tax policy is to guide investment demand into standardized and regulated on-market channels [1] - It is advisable to prioritize purchasing investment gold bars through member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (such as major banks or reputable gold merchants) to benefit from tax incentives and lower costs [1] - Investors should consider focusing on gold ETFs and accumulation gold products, which offer convenience and liquidity, and are not directly affected by the new tax policy on physical gold, making them good tools to capitalize on long-term gold price appreciation potential [1] Consumer Insights - Jewelry consumers should be aware that gold jewelry prices are likely to remain high due to the new tax policy, with pricing reflecting high craftsmanship fees and brand premiums [1] - Caution is advised to avoid chasing high prices, as gold may experience short-term volatility; a wait-and-see approach is recommended to avoid short-term trading pitfalls [1] - For long-term investors, gradually building positions at the lower end of the price range during fluctuations is suggested [1]