房价已经跌了整整4年，26年房价还会跌吗？

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant increase in real estate prices in China over the past several years, highlighting a 400% rise in prices from 2015 to 2021 [1][3][4] - It emphasizes that the real estate boom has created wealth for many, particularly the middle class, but questions the sustainability of this wealth accumulation [6][8] - The article notes a shift in the housing market dynamics, with younger generations showing less interest in traditional home buying due to changing priorities and economic pressures [11][15][17] Group 1: Price Trends - Real estate prices in some areas have surged from 5,000 yuan per square meter to over 40,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a massive price inflation [3] - A hypothetical investment scenario illustrates that a 300,000 yuan investment could yield a return of 3 million yuan by 2021, resulting in a 1000% return [4] - The article states that the era of uniform price increases is over, with current market conditions leading to a more complex landscape for buyers [9][17] Group 2: Market Challenges - The article highlights that many homeowners are now facing negative equity, with instances of individuals owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth [10][8] - It points out that the oversupply of housing, particularly in the "just need" segment, is leading to a stagnation in sales, with a significant increase in the number of unsold properties from 3.45 million in August 2022 to 7.53 million by October 2025 [23][25] - Rising unemployment rates, particularly among the 25 to 55 age group, are further complicating the housing market, with youth unemployment exceeding 20% [27] Group 3: Future Outlook - The article raises concerns about the potential for further price declines, suggesting that while prices may continue to drop, the rate of decline will slow by 2026 [21] - It discusses the implications of a potential return to 2013 price levels, noting that while this may ease purchasing pressure for some, it could lead to significant losses for those who invested heavily in real estate [30][34] - The article concludes with a call for discussion on the future of real estate prices, indicating a divide in opinions on whether to buy now or wait for further declines [35]