美联储威廉姆斯：12月降息陷“两难” 贫富差距或拖累美国经济

Core Insights - A senior Federal Reserve official warns that the increasing plight of the impoverished in the U.S. poses a risk of recession for the world's most important economy, highlighting the "balancing act" faced by Fed policymakers when considering a potential rate cut in December [1][2] Economic Conditions - New York Fed President Williams indicates that many low- and middle-income families are struggling with affordability issues, including high living costs and housing expenses, while wealthier Americans benefit from a soaring stock market [1] - Despite the overall resilience of the U.S. economy exceeding many economists' expectations, the pain experienced by vulnerable households suggests a potential deviation from economic stability [1][2] Labor Market Dynamics - Fed officials, including Powell and Waller, are increasingly focused on how the labor market, described by Williams as lacking "strong momentum," affects the economic outlook for ordinary Americans [2] - Signs of a cooling labor market have led the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in the last two policy meetings, with investors anticipating another cut next month, although Powell stated that further cuts are not a "foregone conclusion" [2] Consumer Confidence and AI Impact - Confidence has rebounded significantly due to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and related investment trends, which have replaced previous pessimism regarding trade tensions [3] - While AI-related investments are stimulating growth, concerns about potential market bubbles persist, with Williams expressing cautious optimism about the transformative potential of AI [3] Monetary Policy and Market Signals - The Fed announced the end of its quantitative tightening experiment starting December 1, acknowledging recent funding pressures in the money market [3] - Williams refuted calls for the Fed to shift its benchmark interest rate to better reflect repo market borrowing costs, emphasizing the continued use of the federal funds rate as the policy rate [3]