“收储”无实质性进展，多晶硅价格涨不动了？

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, leading to a decline in polysilicon futures prices despite ongoing discussions about "stockpiling" policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of November 7, polysilicon futures for the main contract closed at 53,215 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly decline of 5.51% [1] - The repeated announcements regarding "stockpiling" have diminished their impact on the market, with analysts noting that the lack of substantial progress has led to a reversion to fundamental trading [1][2] - The current market is characterized by weak fundamentals, with polysilicon prices unable to sustain high premiums due to insufficient support from the spot market [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The polysilicon market is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with supply expected to decrease by 12.4% due to maintenance by two major producers [2] - Demand is also weak, with a reported 53.75% year-on-year decline in photovoltaic installations, contributing to inventory pressures [2] - Current polysilicon inventory stands at a high of 301,000 tons, indicating an ongoing oversupply situation [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts are divided on the future of polysilicon prices, with some suggesting that if "stockpiling" funding issues are resolved, prices could stabilize or increase [3] - Conversely, if no substantial progress is made on "stockpiling," prices are likely to remain under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [3] - The key factors influencing future price movements will be component prices and overall demand in the market [3]