通胀回升的三大因素

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][4][23] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% previously, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [6][26] Summary by Factors Factor 1: Commodity Price Increases - The rise in coal prices due to anti-involution has had a limited impact on downstream PPI, while copper prices, which are less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase [2][7] - In October, PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year improvement of 0.2 percentage points to -2.1% [7][10] - The price of copper rose by 7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the PPI increase, while coal prices rose by 7.5% [7][10] Factor 2: CPI Rebound - The CPI's rise above zero is attributed to a low base effect and reduced supply in certain food categories, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits [2][10] - The CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above the average of 0.15% since 2017, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points [10][28] - The food CPI remains low at -2.9% year-on-year, despite a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [10][28] Factor 3: Core CPI Improvement - The core CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year, supported by increased travel demand and rising gold prices [3][13] - The core service CPI showed better-than-seasonal performance due to the overlap of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel [3][13] - Excluding gold, the remaining core goods CPI remained flat at 0.5%, indicating a potential adjustment in subsidy distribution by businesses [18][23] Future Outlook - The upward pressure on inflation from commodity price increases is expected to continue, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize [4][23] - It is anticipated that the PPI will remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, while the CPI's year-on-year increase may be limited due to declining subsidy support and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][23] Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items [26][28] - The PPI recorded a year-on-year change of -2.1%, with a notable recovery in living materials [26][28] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, while transportation fuel prices showed a significant increase [30][33]