“收储”无实质性进展 多晶硅价格涨不动了？

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, leading to a decline in polysilicon futures prices despite ongoing discussions about "stockpiling" policies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of November 7, polysilicon futures for the main contract closed at 53,215 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly decline of 5.51% [2]. - The repeated announcements regarding "stockpiling" have diminished their impact on the market, with analysts noting that the lack of substantial progress has led to a reversion to fundamental trading [2][4]. - The current market structure is characterized by weak fundamentals driving prices down, while expectations of "stockpiling" are exerting upward pressure [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The polysilicon market is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with supply expected to decrease by 12.4% due to maintenance by two major producers [3]. - Demand is also weak, with November's production of silicon wafers and battery cells projected to decline, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in photovoltaic installations of 53.75% [3]. - Current polysilicon inventory stands at a high of 301,000 tons, indicating an ongoing oversupply situation [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the "stockpiling" initiative does not progress, polysilicon prices will remain under downward pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [4]. - The future price trajectory of polysilicon will depend on the resolution of funding issues related to the "stockpiling" initiative and the ability of silicon material companies to control prices [4]. - Until there is substantial progress on "stockpiling," polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate within a high range [4].