特朗普冲击波已过？美元波动性跌回大选前水平

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market has stabilized after the volatility caused by the "Trump shock," with indicators of dollar volatility returning to pre-election levels [2][3]. Group 1: Market Stability - The volatility expectations for the dollar against the euro and yen have dropped to their lowest point in over a year, recovering some of the losses seen earlier this year [2]. - The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, has also regained some ground, approaching levels seen before Trump's election victory [2]. - A series of tariff agreements among major U.S. trading partners has effectively reduced market volatility, while the U.S. economy has shown more resilience than expected under tariff pressures [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors and analysts have learned to coexist with Trump's policies, adopting a more cautious approach to news headlines [2]. - Some large fund managers believe that previous concerns about U.S. assets were overstated, viewing the dollar's decline as a correction within a bull market rather than a trend reversal [3]. - The significant drop in volatility expectations indicates that the market perceives the "Trump shock" as having ended, with easing trade tensions and a more stable fiscal policy [3]. Group 3: Dollar's Role in Portfolios - The dollar is regaining its traditional role as a stabilizer in investment portfolios, particularly during global pressures [5]. - Fund managers assert that the earlier situation in which the dollar fell alongside risk assets was an anomaly rather than a long-term trend [5]. - The demand for bullish dollar options has surged, indicating a strong belief in the dollar's potential to strengthen [4].