Daqin Railway(SH:601006) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-10 00:30Core Viewpoint - Daqin Railway is undergoing a long-term transformation to expand its non-coal freight business, which is expected to enhance long-term returns despite short-term profit pressures due to rising costs and declining coal market conditions [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Daqin Railway achieved operating revenue of 57.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.224 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.7% [1]. - In Q3 2025, operating revenue grew by 6.3% year-on-year to 19.773 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 23.0% to 2.109 billion yuan [1][3]. - For Q2 2025, operating revenue increased by 6.3% to 19.485 billion yuan, while net profit dropped by 45.2% to 1.544 billion yuan due to a significant rise in operating costs [3]. Operational Challenges - The coal production in Shanxi has declined, impacting Daqin Railway's freight volume, which saw year-on-year decreases of 6.0%, 8.1%, 13.2%, 1.1%, and 5.6% from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 [2]. - The operating costs increased significantly, with a 17.9% rise in Q2 2025 and a 12.8% rise in Q3 2025, contributing to the decline in net profit [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Daqin Railway is expanding its logistics and non-coal transportation business, with non-coal cargo volume increasing by 19.21 million tons, leading to a 37.7% rise in freight service fees to 9.714 billion yuan [2]. - The company plans to implement a stock repurchase program of 1 to 1.5 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in its long-term value [4]. Long-term Outlook - The company expects to maintain high freight volumes due to its low-cost advantages in coal transportation, despite short-term profit pressures [4]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.4 billion, 7.8 billion, and 8.75 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [4].