Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, is unlikely to lower interest rates again during his term, which ends in May 2026, contrasting with market expectations for a rate cut in December [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by the ongoing government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data, including the October CPI [2][3] - Alternative data suggests a cooling labor market without severe deterioration, providing a rationale for the Fed to pause rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's target for the federal funds rate is projected to remain between 3.75% and 4.0% until late 2025, with potential cuts only starting in the second half of 2026 under a new chair [3] - The government shutdown has reportedly caused a 1.5% decline in U.S. GDP, with potential negative impacts on fourth-quarter economic growth if it continues [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 66.5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 33.5% [4]
降息 突变！白宫发出警告！美政府“停摆”有望结束？
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-11-10 00:35