Ge Long Hui·2025-11-10 01:17Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing marginal decline, with short-term and long-term inflation expectations diverging. The ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2025 fell to 48.70%, down from 49.10%, remaining below the threshold of 50, indicating contraction [5][4]. - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for November 2025 decreased to 50.3, down from 53.6, reflecting declining consumer sentiment [5][4]. - The US refinery utilization rate for the week ending October 31, 2025, dropped to 86.0%, down from 86.6% the previous week [8]. - The US crude steel production for the week ending November 1, 2025, showed a slight year-on-year decline, with a production rate of 9.2%, compared to 9.9% the previous week [8]. Market Performance - Global asset prices showed mixed performance, with commodity prices mostly declining. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.29%, and the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.08%. In contrast, the emerging market stock index fell by 0.99%, and the developed market stock index decreased by 1.51%. The S&P 500 dropped by 1.63%, and the Nikkei 225 fell by 4.07% [1][4]. - Commodity prices generally declined, with London gold down by 0.06%, the S&P-Goldman commodity index down by 0.54%, and IPE Brent crude futures down by 2.11% [1][4]. - In the bond market, the domestic 10Y government bond futures price fell by 0.22%, and the overall index of China’s bonds decreased by 0.10% [1][4]. Policy Implications - The "data vacuum" due to the US government shutdown has intensified market volatility regarding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The release of the September CPI data was delayed from October 15 to October 24, and the October CPI report, originally scheduled for November 13, may also be delayed [2][20]. - Current market expectations indicate a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 33.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [20]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained stable monetary policy, with key deposit rates held at 2%. The ECB is cautious about ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks, which may impact future economic forecasts [21].