美联储威廉姆斯：12月降息陷“两难”，贫富差距或拖累美国经济

Core Insights - A senior Federal Reserve official warns that the increasing plight of the impoverished in the U.S. poses a recession risk for the world's most significant economy, highlighting the "balancing act" faced by Fed policymakers regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The New York Fed President Williams indicates that many low-income families are experiencing a crisis in payment ability due to high living costs and housing expenses, with evidence showing that these families are struggling to make ends meet [2] - Despite the overall resilience of the U.S. economy exceeding many economists' expectations, the pain felt by vulnerable households due to high living costs suggests that the economy may be deviating from a positive trajectory [2][3] - The current strong consumer spending is primarily driven by the highest income groups, which raises concerns about the economic outlook for middle and low-income families [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Williams describes the decision-making process for the December meeting as a "balancing act," with high inflation and signs of a cooling labor market influencing the Fed's stance on interest rates [3] - The Fed has cut rates by 25 basis points in the last two policy meetings, and while investors anticipated another cut next month, Powell stated that further cuts are not a "foregone conclusion" [3] - The Fed plans to end its quantitative tightening experiment on December 1, acknowledging recent funding pressures in the money market [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment - Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and related investments has replaced previous pessimism regarding trade tensions, with Williams acknowledging the potential for AI to significantly enhance productivity growth [4] - Concerns about a potential investment bubble have emerged due to soaring stock prices, but Williams believes that as long as investments are not highly leveraged and primarily financed through equity, there is no cause for alarm [4]