Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 01:37Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains its earnings forecast for Swire Properties (01972) and continues to rate it as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 23.8, reflecting a 30% discount to NAV, a 4.8% dividend yield for 2025, and a 10% upside potential [1] - The company is trading at a 36% discount to NAV and offers dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] - The company adopts a dividend policy of single-digit annual growth in DPS, and it is suggested to monitor the progress of property sales collections and asset disposals to support dividend payouts [1] Group 2 - Retail sales in mainland luxury shopping centers have shown a significant year-on-year increase, with notable projects like Shanghai Xinyi Swire and Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li recording retail sales growth of 42%, 8%, and 6% respectively for the first three quarters [2] - The company is benefiting as a consolidator in the mainland luxury market, with the effects of luxury brand store expansions and renovations becoming increasingly evident [2] - New projects such as Guangzhou Julong Bay Taikoo Li, Sanya Taikoo Li, and Xi'an Taikoo Li are under construction and are expected to open in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] Group 3 - The rental rate for office buildings in Hong Kong remains resilient, with the company's office portfolio maintaining a high occupancy rate of 92% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [3] - The demand for expansion from key tenants, such as FWD Hong Kong leasing 330,000 square feet in Taikoo Place for a 10-year lease, supports this stable occupancy rate [3] - Average rental adjustments for the company's office buildings in the first three quarters of 2025 have decreased by 13% to 15%, as the company prioritizes maintaining occupancy rates and long-term tenant relationships [3] Group 4 - Retail sales in Hong Kong's luxury and mass-market properties have shown a quarterly recovery, with Taikoo Place and Taikoo Shing recording year-on-year sales growth of 3.6% and 3.0% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [4] - This performance outperforms the overall Hong Kong retail sector, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.0% [4] - The recovery is attributed to the low base effect and the company's active marketing efforts to attract a diverse and younger customer base [4]