国盛固收：黄金有色影响较大，物价有待继续观察

Core Insights - October inflation data shows a shift in CPI from decline to increase, with PPI's rate of decline narrowing, significantly influenced by prices of gold and non-ferrous metals [1][4][25] - October CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing a 0.3% decline from the previous month, marking the highest value since February of this year [1][6] - PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing [1][21] CPI Analysis - Food prices showed slight improvement, with a 2.9% decline, but the drop was less severe than the previous month, impacting CPI by approximately 0.54 percentage points [2][14] - Core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, with gold prices being a major driver [2][10] - Domestic gold futures prices increased by 52.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous month's growth rate [2][10] PPI Analysis - PPI for October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with notable performance in the non-ferrous sector, particularly in mining and metal processing [3][21] - The prices in the non-ferrous mining and metal processing industries increased by 5.3% and 2.4% respectively, the highest among all sectors [3][21] - Life goods PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [3][21] Market Outlook - The rise in prices is influenced by multiple factors, including the increase in gold prices and extreme weather affecting vegetable prices, leading to an unexpected overall price increase [4][25] - Future price trends remain uncertain, with a potential decline in gold prices in early November and weak terminal demand affecting price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors [4][26] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a recommendation for a barbell strategy to manage risks and capitalize on potential interest rate declines [4][26]