煤炭ETF（515220）涨超1%，10月以来较沪深300超额超15%

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a rebound, with the coal ETF (515220) rising over 1%, supported by high port coal prices and ongoing "anti-involution" policies, which provide medium to long-term performance and valuation support for the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Performance - The recent surge in thermal coal spot prices is accelerating, with the price of 5500K coal in the Bohai Rim region breaking the 800 yuan mark, significantly rebounding from June's low [1]. - Social inventory continues to decrease, with Qinhuangdao port's inventory down 30% compared to mid-year levels, and power plants shifting their procurement strategy towards the spot market [1]. - Stricter safety regulations in regions like Shanxi and Shaanxi are leading to supply contractions, while winter storage demand is beginning to ramp up, creating a supply-demand resonance that supports near-term performance in the coal industry [1]. Group 2: Medium to Long-term Outlook - A series of policies aimed at improving macroeconomic expectations are expected to support coal prices from both supply and demand sides, with "anti-involution" policies likely to constrain industry supply and alleviate price competition, thereby enhancing industry profits [2]. - Recent policy enhancements in the real estate sector are aimed at stabilizing the market, which, combined with infrastructure investment and industrial recovery, suggests a potential recovery in coal demand [2]. - The easing of US-China trade relations and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle may bolster export demand, while concerns over tariffs are expected to dissipate, further supporting coal prices and the performance of listed companies [2]. Group 3: Investment Appeal - The current dividend yield of the China Securities Coal Index (399998) stands at 4.48%, positioned at approximately the 50th percentile since its inception, indicating significant dividend attractiveness [2]. - Coal, as a relatively stable high-dividend asset, is favored by long-term institutional investors, which supports the medium to long-term performance of the coal ETF (515220) [2][3].