“混动”复兴曙光初现

Core Insights - The breakthrough of "large capacity HEV mass production" has revitalized hybrid technology (HEV), which had been overshadowed by PHEV and pure electric vehicles, making it a key focus in the automotive industry [2] - The gradual reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax starting in 2026 and the deepening of equal rights for oil and electricity are reshaping the automotive market landscape, positioning HEV as a competitive option due to its advantages [3][4] Policy Impact - From January 1, 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax will shift from exemption to a 50% reduction, with a maximum deduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle, raising the technical threshold for PHEV [3] - Local governments are increasingly supportive of HEV, with cities like Guangzhou including HEV in the "energy-saving vehicle directory," providing equal exemptions as new energy vehicles, enhancing their market appeal [4] Technological Advancements - Continuous improvements in battery technology and hybrid systems have addressed previous limitations of HEV, such as short electric range and efficiency issues [6] - Predictions indicate that by 2030, HEV battery capacity could increase from 1-2 kWh to 5-8 kWh, with electric range potentially reaching 50-80 km [6] Market Dynamics - The revival of the HEV market is prompting significant strategic adjustments among automakers, with a focus on differentiated solutions for various regions and consumer needs [8] - The cost of HEV powertrains has decreased by 60% since 2018 due to localized production, narrowing the price gap with traditional fuel vehicles to within 15,000 yuan, making HEVs more accessible to mainstream consumers [9] Future Outlook - The revival of HEV is seen as a rational response to the energy transition in the automotive industry, catering to diverse consumer needs without requiring significant changes in user habits [11] - It is projected that HEV sales in China could exceed 2 million units by 2027, capturing a stable market share in the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan family car segment [9]