顺丁橡胶：对标上一轮行情低点，探求价格止跌机会

Core Viewpoint - The market for butadiene rubber is experiencing a downward trend, with prices hitting a new low since its listing, primarily due to declining costs and macroeconomic issues affecting demand [1][2]. Price Movement - As of November 5, 2025, the price of BR9000 in the North China market was approximately 9900 CNY/ton, down 600 CNY/ton from October 31, with a low point of around 9700 CNY/ton, marking a return to the price levels of the second quarter of 2023 [2][4]. Macro Environment - The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 is characterized by a transition from rapid growth to high-quality development, with expected demand growth slowing down. The impact of overseas tariff issues is overshadowing optimistic domestic expectations [4][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The butadiene market is facing increased supply, leading to a downward price trend. As of November 5, 2025, the price of butadiene in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region was 6825 CNY/ton, with a price difference from rubber prices at 2975 CNY/ton, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [4][6]. Inventory Levels - The overall supply of butadiene rubber is expected to grow more than demand, with inventory levels increasing by approximately 36% compared to the previous low price point. This high inventory level is likely to exert downward pressure on prices [6][7]. Future Expectations - The current market conditions suggest a lack of clear support for price stabilization, with expectations of further declines in raw material prices and a slowdown in downstream demand, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [6][7].