日本央行“鹰”声嘹亮，最快下月加息？

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent meeting minutes indicate a growing consensus among policymakers for a potential interest rate hike, contingent on sustained corporate wage growth and economic conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Hike Considerations - Eight out of nine committee members expressed the need for a timely interest rate increase or set specific conditions for a future hike [1] - The timing of any rate increase will depend on corporate earnings reports and executive statements confirming ongoing wage increases [1] - A committee member emphasized the importance of not missing the opportunity to raise rates, despite the current situation not necessitating immediate action [1] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Decisions - The impact of U.S. tariffs and the wage growth momentum of Japanese companies are critical factors in determining the timing of the next rate hike [2] - Another committee member noted that raising the policy rate is part of the normalization process, which could help mitigate future economic distortions [3] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate at 0.5%, with two members opposing this decision and advocating for a rise to 0.75% [1] - Following the appointment of Prime Minister Kishida, who supports expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the Bank of Japan faces political challenges regarding its monetary stance [3] - A recent survey indicated that a majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates within the current quarter, with nearly 96% predicting a hike by the end of March [3]