McDonald’s is rapidly losing a vital group of customers

Core Insights - McDonald's is experiencing a decline in customer visits despite a year-over-year increase in U.S. comparable sales of 2.4%, primarily due to positive check growth [1] - The company is facing challenges with low-income consumers avoiding restaurants, a trend expected to continue into 2026 [4][5] Sales and Consumer Behavior - U.S. comparable sales increased by 2.4% year-over-year, but same-store customer visits dropped by 4% [1] - The launch of the "McValue" menu aimed at price-sensitive consumers has not significantly improved foot traffic [2] - A study indicated that 69% of U.S. consumers are eating at home more often, with 85% citing saving money as the primary reason [7][16] Pricing and Inflation Impact - Fast-food prices have increased by 39% to 100% from 2014 to 2024, outpacing the 31% inflation rate during the same period [5] - McDonald's menu prices for popular items have doubled since 2014, leading to more consumers opting to cook at home [6] Product Strategy and Promotions - McDonald's relaunched Extra Value Meals (EVMs) to attract lower-income consumers, targeting a minimum discount level of 15% [13][14] - The reintroduction of the Monopoly game increased consumer engagement, with 45 million active users in the U.S. [10][11] Challenges Ahead - Rising beef prices, which have increased by 51% since February 2020, are expected to put further pressure on the fast-food industry [12][17] - The company anticipates above-average inflation next year, particularly affecting beef prices [12]