华尔街开始做空美股和黄金？美国银行先发难，狂言美联储半年内不降息

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of both U.S. stocks and gold rising simultaneously, contrary to traditional expectations, has raised investor concerns about future trends and potential adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The level of liquidity has become a core variable affecting the movements of both U.S. stocks and gold [3] - If market liquidity remains loose, asset prices are likely to be pushed higher; conversely, tightening liquidity expectations may lead to downward pressure on high-priced assets [3] - Some institutions have begun to implement short-selling strategies, driven by the narrative of liquidity depletion and actual withdrawal operations [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The prediction from Bank of America suggests that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates during Jerome Powell's current term, contrasting sharply with mainstream market expectations [3] - The recent statements from Powell indicate that interest rate decisions will depend on forthcoming economic data, which has been hindered by the government shutdown affecting key data releases [5] - The absence of critical data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates, even if economic conditions worsen due to delayed rate cuts [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Both U.S. stocks and gold are currently at historical highs, and further increases will require sustained inflows of capital, which may be challenging due to high base effects [5] - The short-selling strategy is characterized by the potential for significant returns if liquidity tightening becomes a consensus in the market [5] - High-priced assets are becoming increasingly sensitive to negative news, and if liquidity depletion becomes a market consensus, capital withdrawal and reverse operations may accelerate price adjustments [9] Group 4: Treasury Actions and Market Liquidity - The U.S. Treasury's recent actions, including increasing the TGA account balance from $300 billion to over $1 trillion, have effectively withdrawn $700 billion in liquidity from the market [7] - Upcoming Treasury bond auctions will further withdraw at least $125 billion from the market this week, contributing to liquidity tightening [7] Group 5: Investor Caution - While a market crash may not be imminent, the risk of liquidity tightening is becoming evident, and high-priced assets are reacting more sensitively to negative information [9] - Investors are advised to remain cautious amidst optimistic sentiments and to monitor policy signals and liquidity changes to avoid being passive participants in the market [11]