美国史上最长停摆迎终结曙光，参议院民主党人达成拨款协议

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown is nearing an end as moderate Democratic senators agree to support a deal to restart the government and fund certain departments for the entire year [2][3] - The agreement includes full-year budgets for the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress itself, while funding for other agencies will continue until January 30 [2] - The bill will retroactively pay salaries to furloughed government employees, restore federal funding to state and local governments, and recall employees laid off during the shutdown [2] Legislative Process - The Senate is set to hold a procedural test vote, and if it passes, a full Senate vote will be required to quickly end the shutdown [3] - The House of Representatives must also pass the bill to restart government operations, with Speaker Mike Johnson indicating that he will notify members two days in advance for a vote [4] Political Dynamics - President Trump expressed optimism about the shutdown ending, while Senator Tim Kaine emphasized the bill's prohibition on new federal layoffs before January 30 [5] - The House Democrats, led by Hakeem Jeffries, plan to oppose the Republican bill, indicating a continuation of partisan tensions [6] - The ongoing negotiations reflect a pattern where parties attempt to leverage government shutdowns for policy victories, which historically have not succeeded [6] Budgetary Implications - The Democrats have previously rejected a clean temporary spending bill that would have kept departments running until November 21 [7] - The Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated opposition to the current agreement, advocating for an extension of the soon-to-expire Obamacare tax credits [7] - The Republican strategy has pressured Senate Democrats into compromise, although they still need bipartisan support to end debate on the spending bill [7] Economic Impact - The shutdown is causing an estimated loss of $15 billion per week to the U.S. economy, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a 1.5 percentage point reduction in annualized GDP growth rate due to the shutdown [9] - The halt in government data releases is complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to address ongoing inflation and rising unemployment [10] Outcomes of the Agreement - The proposed spending bill includes some Democratic wins, such as blocking cuts to international food aid and increasing security budgets for Congress [11] - If passed, the bill will restrict the sale of intoxicating cannabis products, potentially benefiting the beer industry, while the cannabis industry claims this could jeopardize 325,000 jobs [12]