Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 03:53Core Viewpoint - The C-REITs market experienced a peak followed by a correction in 2025, but has now stabilized after hitting a bottom. The demand for quality assets remains strong in the short to medium term, with policy benefits expected to emerge by the end of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, three factors drove the REITs market to a record high, but a correction occurred in the second half due to capital diversion to equities, a weakening bond market, and pressure on the underlying fundamentals [2]. - The A-share indices have rebounded significantly, increasing market risk appetite and leading funds to favor high-elasticity assets, which has put pressure on REITs market liquidity [2]. - The bond market's decline has compressed spreads, while REITs' cash distribution rates have not adjusted accordingly, reducing the comparative advantage of REITs over interest rate bonds [2]. - The underlying asset fundamentals are under pressure, with sectors like industrial parks, highways, and logistics facing declining demand and intensified competition, leading to weakened profitability [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - There is a continued divergence in the fundamentals across various sectors, with a focus on stable performance in counter-cyclical assets [3]. - The operational capabilities of the consumer infrastructure sector are highlighted, with fundamentals expected to remain stable [3]. - Policy-supported sectors such as affordable rental housing and municipal environmental protection show significant counter-cyclical advantages, with the rental rate for affordable housing reaching 97.3% in Q3, up 0.3% from the previous quarter [3]. - However, market-driven real estate sectors, such as research and office buildings, face dual challenges of declining demand and increased competition [3]. Group 3: Policy Outlook - There is ample room for policy benefits to be released, particularly regarding index products [4]. - In the short term, policies for index products and other incremental funding are poised to be launched, accelerating the expansion of the multi-tiered REITs market [4]. - In the medium to long term, regulatory measures are expected to promote the healthy development of the REITs market through special legislation, the introduction of incremental funds, and enhanced active management [4]. - The current conditions indicate that the REITs index products are ready for launch, with attention on their potential positive impact on the market [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - There are opportunities for allocation following the market correction, with a focus on selective projects in the primary market and three main lines in the secondary market: counter-cyclical assets, improving economic conditions, and strong fundraising demands from original equity holders [5]. - In the primary market, it is recommended to select projects with larger spreads and superior assets, while exercising caution with long lock-up period allocations [5]. - The secondary market should concentrate on three main lines: 1) counter-cyclical sectors with stable fundamentals; 2) related assets with marginal recovery in economic conditions; 3) assets with strong fundraising demands and quality reserves [5].