国际金价“过山车”：暴跌8%后，未来是涨是跌？

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant drop of approximately 8% in just two days, resulting in a market value loss exceeding $2.5 trillion, following a period of record highs and profit-taking by investors [1] Group 1: Recent Gold Price Surge - Since September, international gold prices have seen a strong upward trend, with the December 2025 futures price surpassing $4,000 per ounce and reaching a historical high of $4,014.60 per ounce on October 7 [2] - By October 16, the price peaked near $4,390 per ounce, marking a nearly 60% increase year-to-date, making the gold market a focal point for investors [2] Group 2: Analysis of the Price Drop - Analysts attribute the recent drop in gold prices to a technical correction after months of rising prices and an overbought market condition [3] - Factors contributing to the previous price surge included increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, concerns over inflation, significant gold purchases by central banks, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The recent strengthening of the dollar, easing geopolitical tensions, and optimistic expectations regarding trade disputes have prompted investors to take profits [3] - The chairman of the New York Mercantile Exchange noted that the recent price drop is a typical "technical correction," indicating that the market had been overbought for some time [3] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Market institutions have differing views on the future trajectory of gold prices, but most agree that prices are likely to remain high in the short term [4] - Citibank predicts that if the U.S. government shutdown is resolved and trade tensions ease, gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the coming weeks [4] - Goldman Sachs believes the recent drop is a technical correction and that the long-term macroeconomic factors supporting gold prices remain unchanged [4] - Morgan Stanley shares a similar view, suggesting that the price drop is a short-term adjustment rather than the end of a bull market, with ongoing support from central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [4] - Standard Chartered has raised its average gold price forecast for 2026 from $3,875 to $4,488 per ounce, citing increasing global uncertainties and strong investment demand for gold [4]