数据“黑箱”下的美国就业：裁员激增，美联储降息近在咫尺？

Group 1 - The U.S. job market has become a significant source of uncertainty in the economy, with the government shutdown entering its second month, leading to a lack of employment reports and data on hiring, wages, and labor participation rates [1] - Private sector data from ADP indicates that 42,000 jobs were added in October, marking the first monthly increase since July, but this is still significantly lower than earlier in the year [1] - The strongest job growth was seen in trade, transportation, and utilities, while professional services and information sectors experienced job losses [1] Group 2 - Fundstrat's economic strategist noted that the job creation in the private sector is not primarily driven by AI-related industries, which is surprising given investor expectations for AI to be a major growth driver [2] - Rising layoffs are a sign of a cooling job market, with the number of layoffs in October exceeding 153,000, the worst performance for that month since 2003 [3] - Year-to-date, over 1.1 million layoffs have been announced, a 44% increase compared to the total layoffs for 2024, with technology and retail sectors being the hardest hit [3] Group 3 - Consumer confidence has dropped to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since 2022, driven by concerns over the government shutdown and rising prices [3] - The economic environment is characterized by a "K-shaped" recovery, where market gains primarily benefit wealthier households, leading to a sense of unease among the broader population [3] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in assessing the health of the labor market due to a lack of reliable data, with indications that the labor market is softening [4][5]