2026年周期的风能否吹到化工

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and potential future of the chemical industry in the U.S. and China, highlighting investment opportunities and risks based on macroeconomic factors and industry cycles. Group 1: U.S. Chemical Industry - The acquisition of Oxychem by Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion is highlighted as a significant value investment, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6-8, compared to the industry average of 9 and specialty chemicals at over 12 [2][3]. - The U.S. chemical industry is potentially at a cyclical bottom, driven by low production costs and a current industry downturn leading to attractive valuations [3][14]. - The return on capital in the U.S. chemical industry is at its lowest in over 25 years, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [7]. - The demand for chemicals is primarily driven by the automotive and real estate sectors, which are currently subdued due to high interest rates, but may rebound if rates decrease [11][14]. Group 2: Chinese Chemical Industry - The Chinese chemical industry faces higher costs compared to the U.S., which may lead to increased uncertainty and risk in investments [16][24]. - Recent expansions in production capacity in China are nearing completion, which may impact future supply dynamics [16][22]. - The demand outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, influenced by both domestic and export factors, as well as the performance of traditional and new economy sectors [23][24]. - The article suggests that the Chinese chemical sector is characterized by higher risk and potential returns, with significant policy influences affecting supply-side reforms [24].