市场分歧的背后，赛力斯已现“滞胀”迹象

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Seres this year reflects a "stagflation" situation, indicating that its rigid costs may limit its growth potential [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Seres has become the largest domestic vehicle listing company this year, surpassing Chery Automobile, but did not achieve the expected "opening red" upon its debut in the Hong Kong stock market [2]. - The company completed two significant expenditures this year: acquiring Longsheng New Energy Super Factory for over 8.1 billion yuan and purchasing a 10% stake in Yingwang Company for 11.5 billion yuan, which supports its future growth expectations [3]. Group 2: Sales and Financial Performance - For the first ten months of 2025, Seres' cumulative sales reached 356,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with the Wanjie series contributing 325,000 units, showing a decline of 0.6% [4]. - The revenue and profit structure for the first three quarters showed a revenue of 110.5 billion yuan with a gross margin of 29.4% and a net margin of 5.1%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability despite stagnant sales growth [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - Seres' gross margin has been increasing, recorded at 27.6%, 28.9%, and 29.4% for the first quarter, half-year, and first three quarters respectively, while the average vehicle price has also risen [4]. - The sales expense ratio has been increasing, with significant components being advertising and service fees, which may indicate a strategic focus on brand building despite rising costs [4][5]. Group 4: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The pricing strategy for the new M7 model reflects a continued increase in prices, contrasting with the competitive landscape where other brands are lowering prices [5]. - Seres' production capacity is expected to reach one million units by 2027, which is crucial for achieving its sales targets, but the current high capacity utilization may limit pricing flexibility [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company may face limitations in expanding its model categories due to the competitive environment and its reliance on the Huawei intelligent driving system, which could hinder its growth in the electric SUV segment [6]. - If Seres cannot achieve annual growth rates of around 40% in sales and revenue over the next two years, its profit structure may reach a marginal point, impacting its future valuation [6].