Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 06:21Core Insights - The Chinese energy storage industry is expected to experience a surge in orders in the first half of 2025, with cumulative orders exceeding 250 GWh, representing a significant increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The shipment volume of energy storage systems reached 167 GWh in the first half of the year, marking an 86% year-on-year growth [1] - The lithium battery industry is witnessing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with signs of price increases across multiple segments, indicating a potential sustained price increase cycle starting next year [1] Market Review - Since October 2025, most segments of the lithium battery sector have rebounded, with the lithium mining sector leading the gains at 7%, while the smart driving sector saw the largest decline at -7.6% [2] - Monthly transaction volumes in the lithium battery sector have generally decreased, except for a slight increase in the new energy vehicle segment [2] New Energy Vehicles - In September, sales of new energy vehicles in China, Europe, and the U.S. reached 137,000, 33,000, and 17,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 36%, and 37% [3] - The increase in sales in China is attributed to policy support and a surge in new vehicle launches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [3] - European markets saw significant growth due to post-holiday boosts and electric vehicle subsidy policies in countries like the UK and Spain [3] - In the U.S., sales rebounded in August as consumers rushed to purchase before subsidy cancellations, aided by dealer promotions [3] Energy Storage - In September, domestic energy storage installations in China were 4.0 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 69% but a month-on-month decline of 68% [4] - Cumulative installations from January to September reached 68.1 GWh, up 45% year-on-year [4] - In the U.S., energy storage installations in September were 2.3 GWh, down 21% year-on-year and 33% month-on-month, with cumulative installations for the year at 27.4 GWh, a 36% increase [4] - The overall market for energy storage remains robust, with significant sales figures reported [4] Lithium Battery Production - In October, production of lithium batteries is expected to increase by 3% to 9% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth rates between 21% and 50% [5] - Cumulative pre-production estimates for lithium carbonate, batteries, and other components show significant year-on-year increases, driven by rising demand [5] Lithium Battery Prices - Prices for lithium battery materials are rising, with lithium hexafluorophosphate seeing a monthly increase of 66% [6] - Prices for key materials such as positive and negative electrodes and electrolytes are generally increasing due to demand, while graphite prices are declining due to upstream cost reductions [6] New Technologies - The second half of 2025 marks a critical period for the engineering and industrialization of solid-state batteries and composite current collectors [7] - Significant increases in orders for pilot lines and equipment for vehicle-grade solid-state batteries are expected, with mass production anticipated to begin in late 2025 [7] Investment Recommendations - The lithium battery sector is poised for a new round of expansion driven by technological breakthroughs in solid-state batteries, leading to increased capital expenditures across the industry [8] - Key recommendations include leading companies in niche markets and those involved in solid-state technology, such as CATL, EVE Energy, and Keda Technology [8]