恒瑞医药(600276)：“创新+出海”快速推动全球化

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance is driven by the high-quality growth from innovative drug releases and accelerated overseas expansion, achieving a revenue of 23.188 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.751 billion yuan, up 24.50% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 7.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.72%, with a net profit of 1.301 billion yuan, up 9.53% year-on-year [1] - The high-speed growth in performance is attributed to two main factors: continuous realization of innovative drug research results and accelerated external licensing cooperation, contributing to upfront payments and milestone revenues [1] Group 2: Innovation Pipeline - The company continues to strengthen growth driven by innovation, with the approval of the first domestic EZH2 inhibitor and the first self-developed oral triple compound for diabetes in Q3, which will accelerate sales potential as these products are launched [1] - A total of 13 new drug applications were accepted by NMPA in the first three quarters, with 8 applications in Q3, including significant progress on the GLP-1/GIP dual-target weight loss drug HRS9531 [1] - The company is enhancing its research pipeline across various therapeutic areas, including oncology, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, immune and respiratory diseases, and neuroscience [1] Group 3: Business Development and Collaborations - The company is accelerating its global presence through business development (BD) transactions and self-research overseas, with over 800 million USD in overseas licensing upfront payments in the first three quarters [2] - In Q3, the company secured three external licensing agreements, including a 500 million USD upfront payment with GSK for 12 innovative drugs, and additional agreements with Glenmark and BraveheartBio totaling 180 million and 65 million USD upfront payments, respectively [2] - The strong independent research and development capabilities position the company to lead the wave of domestic innovative drugs going overseas [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Due to the continuous overseas expansion of innovative drugs and exceeding expectations in licensing income, the company's EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 1.32, 1.51, and 1.72 yuan, respectively [3] - Based on the PE valuation method and comparable company valuation levels, a target price of 78.52 yuan is set for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]