北新建材(000786)季报点评：石膏板短期承压 两翼业务保持增长

Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 19.905 billion yuan, down 2.25% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.586 billion yuan, down 17.77% [1] Revenue Performance - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 6.347 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 657 million yuan, down 29.47% [1][2] - The gypsum board business is expected to face price and volume declines due to significant demand pressure, while the waterproof business is anticipated to maintain growth due to the company's state-owned enterprise background and financial advantages [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.5%, a slight decrease of approximately 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 27.8%, down 2.3 percentage points from 30.1% in the previous year [2] - Despite the overall pressure in the real estate sector, the gypsum board industry remains relatively stable in profitability, indicating the company's pricing power due to its high market share [2] Expense Management - The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters was 14.3%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, with sales and management expense ratios rising by 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively [3] - In Q3, the expense ratio rose to 16.2%, up 1.5 percentage points, with increases in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [3] Cash Flow and Operational Quality - The cash collection ratio for the first three quarters was 82.8%, a slight decline of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 saw an improvement to 96.3%, up 7.0 percentage points [3] - The net cash ratio for the first three quarters was 59.5%, down 26.5 percentage points year-on-year, but Q3 showed an increase to 87.9%, up 16.4 percentage points [3] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its high market share and pricing power, with potential recovery in gypsum board margins if demand stabilizes [4] - Expansion into new product categories and accelerated mergers and acquisitions are anticipated, with existing channel resources expected to generate quick sales growth [4] - Projected earnings for 2025 and 2026 are 3.34 billion yuan and 3.95 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.9 and 10.1 [4]