Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-11-10 06:52Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the current AI investment cycle still has room for growth, comparing the surge in AI spending and valuations to the early stages of the tech boom in the late 1990s, rather than a speculative peak [1][2] Group 1: AI Investment Cycle - The current AI-related excitement is more similar to the tech boom from 1997 to 1998, rather than the peak in 1999 or 2000, indicating that the AI sector is still in a construction phase [1] - High returns on capital are not guaranteed, but the current trend suggests that the AI investment boom has ample room for advancement as long as there are no external shocks or funding constraints [1][2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuations - Today's tech giants are generating significant free cash flow and engaging in stock buybacks and dividends, which was rare in 1999 [2] - Current capital market activities are much lower than during historical bubble periods, with the IPO market being more selective [2] - Goldman Sachs' perspective may boost market confidence in chip manufacturers, cloud service providers, and data center developers, which are seen as core to the current investment wave [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The recent approximately 5% pullback in the U.S. stock market is viewed as a typical seasonal fluctuation within the AI cycle, not an abnormal signal of a trend reversal [2] - The market has experienced a strong rebound since April, but it is not considered excessive, with expectations of an additional 5-10% increase by year-end supported by favorable seasonal factors [2][3] - Institutional investors have not fully allocated their positions to AI themes, and capital flows are expected to become more favorable towards the end of the year, alongside a potentially more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve next year [3]