Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 07:57Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates a slight decline in Hainan's offshore duty-free sales in Q3 2025, but there are signs of recovery and expectations for stable performance in Q4 2025 following the implementation of new policies [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales totaled 5.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, with 946,800 shopping visits, down 23.4% year-on-year, and an average transaction value of 5,705.53 yuan, up 27.1% year-on-year [1]. - September 2025 saw duty-free sales of 1.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in nearly 18 months [1]. Group 2: Policy Developments - The announcement of Hainan Free Trade Port's closure date on December 18, 2025, and subsequent policy details reflect a clear direction for the region's development [2]. - Recent adjustments to the offshore duty-free policy include an increase in the number of exempted product categories and enhanced purchasing opportunities for travelers [2]. Group 3: Business Outlook - China Duty Free Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 11.711 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.38%, but with improvements in revenue growth and gross margin on a quarter-on-quarter basis [3]. - Following the implementation of the upgraded duty-free policy on November 1, 2025, initial sales figures showed a 6.1% increase compared to the previous day, indicating early positive effects of the new policy [3]. - From November 1 to 7, 2025, the total duty-free shopping amount reached 506 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.86% in shopping numbers [3]. Group 4: Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China Duty Free Group (601888.SH), Meilan Airport (00357), Hainan Airport (600515.SH), Hainan Development (002163.SZ), and Wangfujing (600859.SH) [4].