非农缺席下的就业迷雾：ADP数据强势反弹，小摩警示续请失业金暗藏隐忧

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau will miss the "non-farm day" report due to government shutdown, leading to reliance on other employment data signals [1] - As of August, the average monthly growth in private sector employment is 29,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.32% [1] - ADP's private sector employment estimate shows a rebound in October with an increase of 42,000 jobs, compared to a decrease of 29,000 in September and a decrease of 3,000 in August [1] Group 2 - Initial claims for unemployment benefits are fluctuating around a stable trend, similar to levels from the same period in 2023, despite potential temporary increases due to the government shutdown [2] - The number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits is concerning, with a year-over-year growth rate consistently above 4%, indicating a gradual rise in the unemployment rate [2]