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东方证券:海外缺电引发强烈减产预期 建议积极关注中国电解铝产业优势重估
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 08:35

Group 1: Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - The overseas electricity supply gap is leading to strong production cut expectations, which may result in a re-evaluation of China's industrial advantages in the electrolytic aluminum sector [2][5] - The U.S. electricity net imports reached 20.94 terawatt-hours from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 125%, indicating a growing electricity supply risk [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain cost advantages in the medium term, regardless of whether it relies on thermal or hydropower [1][2] Group 2: Special Steel New Materials Sector - Domestic advancements in nuclear energy technology are leading to increased interest in the special steel sector, particularly materials that can withstand extreme conditions in nuclear applications [3] - The successful installation of the BEST superconducting magnet in Hefei is expected to be the first device to achieve nuclear fusion power generation [3] - Investment opportunities are emerging in special steel companies that supply key materials for nuclear energy devices [3][5] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Sector - The demand for energy storage is significantly increasing due to overseas electricity shortages, leading to a recovery in the lithium carbonate supply chain prices [4] - As of November 6, lithium hexafluorophosphate reached a two-year high of 119,800 yuan per ton, contributing to the rise in lithium carbonate prices to 80,200 yuan per ton on November 7 [4] - The entire lithium carbonate supply chain is expected to see both volume and price increases in the medium term [4][6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, companies like Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) are recommended due to continuous cost reductions and potential volume-price increases in 2026 [5] - In the special steel new materials sector, companies such as Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ) and Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH) are highlighted for their involvement in key nuclear power equipment [5] - In the lithium carbonate sector, companies like Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) and Zhongkuang Resources (002738.SZ) are suggested for investment [6]