Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 08:44Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for Wynn Macau (01128) for 2025 to 2027, with a decrease of 4% to an increase of 1%, and has slightly lowered the target price from HKD 7.5 to HKD 7.4, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Financial Performance - Wynn Macau's Q3 property EBITDA was USD 308 million, benefiting from an increase in VIP win rate to 4.26%, compared to 2.97% in the previous quarter [1] - If the VIP win rate is adjusted to the theoretical value of 3.4%, the property EBITDA would be USD 285 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7% and a year-on-year growth of 9%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The market share of gaming revenue increased by 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 13.1% [1] Management Outlook - The management of Wynn Macau remains optimistic about the prospects of the Macau gaming industry and the company's business, highlighting strong performance in the high-end market, which supported a double-digit year-on-year growth in gaming volume for October [1] - However, due to the low actual win rate in the mass market, the total gaming revenue growth for October may lag behind industry levels, with an estimated market share of approximately 12% for the month [1] Future Projections - Goldman Sachs assumes a market share of 12.6% for Wynn Macau, and anticipates additional costs due to more events being held at the end of the year, projecting Q4 property EBITDA to be USD 280 million and total property EBITDA for the year to be USD 1.1 billion [1] - The expected decline in market share for October and higher costs in Q4 are likely to limit EBITDA and stock price upside potential [1]