Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 09:08Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is optimistic, with 2025 being characterized as a bull market driven by various factors including industry trends, fundamental improvements, and liquidity narratives [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Chinese market in 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, driven by real industry trends such as AI and improvements in fundamentals due to fiscal stimulus and private credit recovery [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a 30% increase, primarily attributed to risk premium contributions [1] - Notable market phenomena include simultaneous rises in assets with differing underlying logic, such as gold, dividends, and growth stocks [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - A small number of stocks (15) contributed to 70% of the index's gains, indicating a highly concentrated market performance [1] - There is a significant rotation in stock performance across sectors, with internet stocks performing well in Q1, new consumption in Q2, innovative pharmaceuticals in Q3, and a return to internet stocks in Q4 [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - The key factors driving the market's upward movement include liquidity narratives, fundamental improvements, and technology trends, with the sustainability of these factors being crucial for assessing the next steps in the bull market [1]