Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 09:17Core Viewpoint - The recent pricing agreement for obesity drugs in the U.S. is milder than market expectations, particularly in the oral medication sector, which is expected to enhance industry growth potential through increased drug accessibility and patient adherence despite initial pricing pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Pricing Agreement Details - The U.S. government reached a pricing agreement with Eli Lilly (LLY.US) and Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) for obesity prescription drugs, effective November 6, 2025 [1]. - Monthly costs for Wegovy and Ozempic will be reduced to $350, Zepbound and the pending Orforgilpron will be priced at $346, and the starting dose for the future oral Wegovy will be $150 [1]. - Key breakthroughs include: 1. Opening pathways for Medicare to reimburse obesity medications, which were previously not covered [1]. 2. Setting a drug price of $245 at the Medicare level, with patients only responsible for $50 [1]. 3. Allowing state Medicaid programs to negotiate for similar low prices with pharmaceutical companies [1]. Group 2: Impact on Patient Adherence and Company Revenue - The pricing reduction is expected to significantly lower patient medication costs, potentially covering about 80% of Medicare beneficiaries, including those with type 2 diabetes and obesity-related complications [1]. - Initial price drops may impact pharmaceutical revenues, with Novo Nordisk anticipating a 2%-4% revenue hit in 2025, equating to a net price decline of 10%-15% [2]. - Approximately 70% of patients currently discontinue treatment within 12 months, but lower out-of-pocket costs are expected to improve adherence, particularly for those relying on compounded medications [2]. Group 3: Company Ratings and Future Outlook - Eli Lilly plans to offer a low out-of-pocket option for the oral formulation Orforglipron starting April 2026, with the drug currently under FDA fast-track review and expected to launch in Q1 2026 [2]. - HSBC maintains a "Hold" rating on Eli Lilly with a target price of $850, citing that while the product pipeline and long-term growth potential are strong, the current stock price reflects optimistic expectations, leading to short-term valuation pressures [2]. - For Novo Nordisk, despite risks of stock price declines due to pricing changes, improvements in Medicare access and advancements in key clinical trials like EVOKE may help the company regain market leadership and create conditions for a strong stock rebound, leading to a "Buy" rating with a target price of 445 Danish Krone [2].