政府停摆、债务沉重与结构性风险：美国金融市场观望情绪浓厚

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted over 40 days, causing significant social and economic challenges, including delays in key economic reports and increased uncertainty in the financial markets [8][12] - The total U.S. government debt has risen from $38.05 trillion at the end of October to $38.17 trillion, increasing by over $10 billion daily, which places immense pressure on the government [8] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen a year-to-date increase of 14.40%, but sector performance has been highly divergent, with technology, communication, utilities, and industrial stocks outperforming [3][4] - The S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.36, indicating that the market may be overvalued, especially if the Federal Reserve does not accelerate interest rate cuts [5] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly the "Big Seven" tech stocks, has driven market gains, contributing significantly to the S&P 500's performance, with notable increases in stocks like Google and Nvidia [4] - The semiconductor industry has seen a 43.29% increase year-to-date, but growth has slowed recently, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards AI-related investments [7] Inflation and Employment - Inflation pressures remain persistent, with various goods experiencing price increases, which could impact retail consumption [9] - The employment market's status is uncertain, with conflicting data making it difficult to assess the true state of the labor market [2][8] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The ongoing budget impasse and potential changes in tariff policies are creating significant uncertainty for businesses and investors [2][12] - The Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates are complicated by the lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown [8][11]