美国政府史上最长停摆背后的政商博弈逻辑

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government experienced a record 40-day shutdown from October 1 to November 9, 2025, surpassing the previous record of 35 days from 2018-2019, primarily due to disputes over the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidy extension [1][2] - The shutdown resulted in significant economic impacts, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a permanent output loss of approximately $14 billion and a potential decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth rate by 1-2 percentage points [4][5] - Key sectors such as aviation and agriculture faced severe disruptions, with Delta Airlines losing $8 million daily and 42 million low-income individuals experiencing food stamp issuance delays [4][6] Group 2 - The political standoff reflects deeper ideological conflicts between the two parties, with Republicans advocating for a "small government, low welfare" approach, while Democrats support "big government, high welfare" policies [3][4] - The involvement of interest groups intensified during the shutdown, with lobbying expenditures increasing by 40%, highlighting the intertwining of political and economic interests [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's independence faced challenges, with internal divisions leading to unclear monetary policy signals, impacting market expectations and investment decisions [7][8] Group 3 - The shutdown's impact on consumer confidence was notable, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropping to its lowest level in over three years, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with Congress [4][5] - The market reacted negatively to the uncertainty, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling by 3% in one week, marking its worst performance since April [9][10] - The shutdown has led to a potential long-term economic slowdown, with forecasts indicating a GDP growth rate of only 1.0% for the fourth quarter, down from previous expectations [23][24]