A股再破4000点，美联储降息的大环境下，A股绝不可能回调

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has recently surpassed the 4000-point mark, raising concerns about whether it will continue to rise towards 5000 points or face a correction. Investors are particularly anxious as many have not experienced such high levels in the past decade, and there are questions about potential market bubbles, especially with the high price-to-earnings ratios in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][3]. Economic and Monetary Policy Context - The global economic and political landscape is currently influenced by the Federal Reserve's sixth interest rate cut and the impending halt of its balance sheet reduction. This shift indicates a forthcoming period of monetary easing, which could lead to significant capital market fluctuations globally [3]. - The "dollar tidal effect" has been highlighted, where the Fed's interest rate hikes have previously led to capital flight from smaller economies, forcing them to raise their own interest rates to retain foreign investment [3][6]. A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market's trajectory over the past two years has been characterized by a recovery from a low of 2600 points to the current 4000 points, driven by state-led monetary policies rather than organic market recovery. Institutional investments from entities like the Central Huijin and social security funds have exceeded 265 billion yuan [6][8]. - The current bull market is not indicative of a broad economic recovery but rather a state-driven liquidity boost aimed at preventing foreign capital from taking advantage of low valuations during the Fed's easing cycle [8][9]. Implications for Foreign Investment - The A-share market's rise has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting a broader revaluation of Chinese assets. The aim is to prevent foreign investors from acquiring undervalued Chinese stocks during the Fed's monetary easing [9][10]. - The overall foreign investment in the A-share market remains limited, with foreign ownership at approximately 4%, but the interconnectedness with the Hong Kong market is significant [8][9]. Future Market Outlook - The expectation is that the A-share market will not experience significant corrections, with a potential upward trend towards 5000 or even 6000 points. The stability of large state-owned enterprises, particularly in banking and insurance, is crucial for maintaining the index's performance [11]. - Investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than the overall market index, as the performance of the index may not reflect the profitability of many individual stocks [11].