刚涨回6字头，猪价就又涨不动了？

Core Insights - The current pig price has shown a slight rebound, reaching just above 6 yuan/kg, but the momentum appears weak and unsustainable [2][3] - After a significant price increase in late October, the market has experienced a downturn, erasing previous gains and creating a cautious sentiment among producers [4][6] Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a mixed trend with fluctuations in prices, indicating a lack of strong upward or downward movement [3][4] - The concept of "secondary fattening" (二次育肥) is highlighted as a critical factor influencing the market, as it can significantly impact supply dynamics [6][12] Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of pigs is relatively stable, with no significant reductions expected unless a major disease outbreak occurs [8] - Consumer demand for pork is limited due to the availability of alternative protein sources, such as poultry and eggs, which are currently priced lower [9] - The elongation of the consumption cycle, particularly with the upcoming late Spring Festival, is expected to dilute the demand spike typically seen during festive periods [10] Future Outlook - While there is some potential for price support due to seasonal consumption increases, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, limiting the likelihood of significant price increases [12] - The reduction in secondary fattening activities reflects a broader uncertainty about market prospects, which may lead to only narrow fluctuations in pig prices moving forward [12]